Can Trump win this?
Can Trump win this?
People make rational or emotional decisions. Most of the time decisions have some rationality and some emotion but one or the other prevails. Rarely there is an 100% rational or 100% emotional decision. It has to do with the individual but the situation as well. Some people tend to be rational while others emotional. Still they could be guided to be more emotional or more rational respectively.
Populism targets more emotions and less reasoning. It worked for Trump in 2016 but it does not always work. Now reasoning is on his side. Voters’ choice of Biden is emotional, not rational. Also, voters’ resentment of the situation worked in Trump’s favor, in 2016. Now it works against him.
The virus has gotten people really confused and emotional. They were not sure whether they or their loved ones would survive the pandemic. They still are not sure. Trump should guide them to calm down, rationalize and clarify things. Even the most emotional person can be guided to become reasonable.
If the elections were held in the beginning of 2020, Trump would have won. He needs to bring voters to that state of mind. The virus changed everything. The last person on earth responsible for the virus is Trump. He is the one that got the more damage. He can’t accuse anyone about the spread of the virus without any evidence. But he can definitely stress that Biden benefited a lot from the virus and let voters draw their own assumptions.
Trump's record until February - March 2020 was more than good. He needs to emphasize his good record till the virus spread and convince voters that he is the most suitable person to bring the situation faster to where it was before the virus. That is what most voters want, things to become like they were in the beginning of 2020, not the end of 2016.
Voters like investors prefer certainty over uncertainty. They know what Trump is and most of them put a good grade until the beginning of 2020. Biden was vice President and did not have responsibilities. His role was to replace the President. Although they know him as a person, they do not know what he would do as a President. Most likely he will follow Obama’s path, the one voters resented in 2016 by voting for Trump.
With Biden, things will go as they were in the end of 2016. Trump should guide the voters to compare the end of 2016 with the beginning of 2020, not the end of 2020. He should ask them to make a choice. Most will choose the beginning of 2020. He will bring fast matters the way they were in the beginning of 2020 while Biden will bring them fast the way they were in the end of 2016.
There is nothing to base the conclusion that he will be better than Trump. Voters are unhappy and they are reacting emotionally. Trump is assisting the emotional approach. Subconsciously they believe that by changing Trump, the situation will change to better. Trump needs to explain that it was the virus and not him responsible for the situation and that with Biden it will just be worse.
Biden was not preferred in primaries twice, in 1988 and 2008. The first time, his campaign lasted only for a while. In 2008, Obama and Edwards started at a little above 10% in the polls while Clinton was at above 30%. All the rest, including Biden, started and remained at below 5%. A few months before the National Convention, Obama was below 25% and Clinton above 40%. Their difference was more than 15 points. In a couple of months, Obama had covered almost 20 points and reached Clinton at levels above 40%. The polls are the picture of the moment and it can change rapidly. Of course, national elections are different than party nominations and the change can go the other way as well. The election campaign has not really started yet.
Americans did not all of a sudden start to like Biden a lot. The polls show their resentment of the situation that is caused by the virus. Another issue is the handling of the virus crisis. Trump seems to have lost control. He was going for an almost certain victory with a strong economy. He was sailing in calm waters towards the trophy and a big storm emerged that no one was expecting. All of a sudden, he had to face a major crisis that had a great negative impact on the economy, his strong card. Hey, that is life! Voters and shareholders want the man or woman in charge to be able to handle such situations whether they were accidental or caused by someone.
Trump did not want to totally destroy his strongest point, the economy. Perhaps he was not so strict in confronting the virus. He needs to convince the American people that his approach was the best because he tried to strike a balance between saving lives and saving the economy. He should divide his staff into three groups; a) dealing with the crisis b) taking care of ongoing matters c) occupied with the elections. These are three separate issues that require different handling.
He should have a double strategy. Try to win 2020 elections and at the same time aim at 2024 elections if he does not succeed. He could come back in four years well prepared. A global cabal, the ultraglobalists, can only be fought by a rival global cabal. He needs to make allies all over the world that are against ultraglobalization. If he is lucky, a virus will spread right before 2024 elections. He may get a big victory then. As the situation is right now, he can only hope for a marginal victory, something that is definitely still possible.
Trump should push Biden on globalization issues. As pointed correctly in some articles, if Biden is labeled a globalist, it will hurt him. American people as most people around the world, favor some elements of globalization but reject the past catastrophic globalization. They want their President to care about their problems instead of how to implement the globalist agenda. Being a globalist is one of Biden’s weakest points. Trump must make the voters understand what it will be like with Biden, a come back to a situation that the voters do not want.
Most media are against Trump. It is not personal. They are on the ultraglobalist agenda as well. Biden had the overwhelming support of the media, not only in USA but in other countries like UK, Germany etch. That eventually had an impact on the polls. This can be another weak point of Biden, if treated the right way. He can be labeled the man of the system, which is true. He is the person who the system favors, not because he is best for the American people but because he will obey like a loyal dog the system. “Biden is best for the media, Trump is best for America”. That is a good slogan. Of course, any issue could backfire if treated incorrectly.
Trump has to overcome the media’s hostility against him. There are other paths he could take. He could make videos explaining things and help voters calm down, rationalize and clarify the situation. Because of the virus, large gatherings that may have boosted his campaign in 2016, are not suitable this time. He may go for discussions with locals in various states that are played in local stations or on the internet.