Syria's placement 1

The future in Syria is very uncertain. There are many domestic and foreign players. What happened was "out of the blue", very unexpected for most people. The developments had gone towards a certain direction and the situation had stabilized for a few years. Assad's government had pushed back the opponents and regained control of most territory. And all of a sudden, there was a turn of events, a total reversal of the previous situation, in a very short time. Rebels seized the capital Damascus.

In 1963, there was a successful cup d' etat against Second Syrian Republic by the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party. Ba'ath party is an anti-religion, socialist party. It supports Pan-Arabism and a one party political system. It is, or was, against pluralism. Since 1966, there was only one party until the 2012 elections, when more parties participated. In 1966 there was another coup and Salah Sadid replaced Michel Aflaq.

Hafez Al Assad was a military officer that had an important role in the first coup in 1963 and in the second in 1966. In 1970, after a third coup, Hafez Al Assad became President replacing Sadid. He remained in power until his death in 2000, when his son Bashar replaced him. Since Ba'ath party was socialist, it had established good relations with Soviet Union.

Although Ba'ath is a socialist party, Haffez Al Assad, towards the end of his presidency, introduced some free market system features and his son followed him. The Assads are Alawites, an esoteric sect of Islam and religious minority. They are approximately 15% of the Syrian population. During Assads' governing, Ba'ath party, Alawites and the military were the three power centres.

In March 2011, there were protests against Assad government. Afterwards, various armed rebel groups started forming. A notable one was Free Syrian Army which was founded by seven military officers that defected from Syria's armed forces. Rebels were supported by Turkiye, Gulf countries and USA, UK, France while the government was supported by Russia and Iran.

Initially, rebel forces made some serious advancements but Assad government, with the assistance of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah pushed them back. By 2018, the government had regained control of all areas, except Idlib region. In 2014, Islamic State started fighting against the government and some fractions of the rebels. They seized control of a large part in Eastern Syria.

USA was carrying airstrikes against them and was helping the Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces. In 2016, Turkiye invaded and was fighting against Islamic State, government forces and Kurds. By March 2020, the war had almost but not entirely stopped. It started again in November 2024, when opposition forces, mainly Tahrir al-Sham and Syrian National Army, launched a surprise offensive.

Tahrir al-Sham, lead by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is a Sunni Islamist paramilitary organization. It was formed in January 2017, when several rebel groups merged. Syrian National Army (previously Free Syrian Amry) is supported by Turkiye. Syrian Free Army or New Syrian Army and Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurdish lead) also launched their offensive. They are both supported by USA. Later, Israel invaded Syria in the Golan Heights region and carried airstrikes.

Rebels entered the capital Damascus, easily and in short time. If it was so easy, why hadn't they done it since the beginning or in the four years that there was no war? The logical explanation is that something changed. There had to be some type of agreement, so that it became so easy for rebels to capture the capital Damascus in such a short time.

It seems that Turkiye replaced Russia. Previously, Syria was a Russian ally. That was a remainer from the communist era since Ba'ath party was a socialist party and had good relations with Soviet Union. Russia has no borders with Syria but Turkiye does, it is right next to it. Also Turkiye is a Muslim country, like Syria. Most Syrian refugees went to Turkiye and Lebanon and now they are coming back.

Iran stated that it advised Assad to negotiate with the rebels. Erdogan praised Putin. So it seems that this evolution has not created a major problem between Russia and Turkiye. Also Erdogan was very supportive of Syria in his statements. He explained that Turkiye will support Syria by all means. Al Julani, the leader of Tahrir al-Sham, who may be the new head of state, said that Turkiye is the model for Syria.

AntiNWO placed Turkiye in Group 8 with Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan. In this way, they will play a very important role in the Muslim world since the two Muslim groups, 5 and 8, are expected to have very close relations. Al Julani, stated that the latest events are a very important development, not only for Syria but also for the region and Islam.

Originally, Syria was placed in Arab Group 5 which had a population of 481 million while Group 8 had a population of 447 million. It was explained that in order to make populations more even, Syria could be included in Group 8. If this happens, the population of Group 8 will become 470 million while in Group 5 it will become 457 million.

Lebanon is surrounded by Syria, in the North and West. In the South it has borders with Israel. If Syria is in Group 8, Lebanon will not have land access to Group 5. One option is to place Lebanon in Group 4 but this has difficulties. A better option for Lebanon is to be included in Group 8 as well. In that case, the population of Group 5 will drop to 452 million. Still, it has more population than Western European (420 million) and Eastern European (435 million) Group.

This may offer a solution to the Palestinian conflict, as it will be explained in the next article. The table below presents data for Group 8, in case Syria and Lebanon are included in that. In column 1 is the population, in Column 2 GDP per capita and in Column 3 GDP. We need to emphasize that this is only a possible scenario because the future in Syria and overall in Middle East is very uncertain.

Syria’s placement 2