Complexity in Middle East
Complexity in Middle East
The situation in Gaza and the surrounding area of Middle East is complex. Palestinians do not have a country, they are a minority inside Israel. Nobody doubted that Israel could defeat Hamas. Not even Hamas thought that it could win a war against Israel. What is happening in Israel is a civil war. The Jewish majority that controls army and police is fighting against Arab minority that has its own guerrilla army.
Israel's population is 9,5 million, 73% are Jewish and 18% are Muslims. So there are almost 7 (6,935) million Jewish and 1,7 million Muslims. There are also 1,9% Christians and 1,8% Druzes. They add up to 2,7% or 250 (257) thousands and are mostly Arabs. So roughly there is a majority of 7 million Jews and a minority of 2 million Arabs. Jewish majority controls army and police and Arab minority has a guerrilla army.
Although Jewish Israelis are much stronger than Palestinian Arabs, things do not look good for Israel in the region. Actually things are very bad for Israel. There is a misconception that Israel is very strong militarily. Israel is very strong for the size it has. Turkiye, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt are stronger than Israel. Egypt has borders with Israel and Turkiye is close. Iran is a little further but still close and Pakistan is even further but not too far.
We will repeat Global Firepower's, top 20 positions (2024) in terms of military strength; USA (0,0699), Russia (0,0702), China (0,0706), India (0,1023), South Korea (0,1416), United Kingdom (0,1443), Japan (0,1601), Turkiye (0,1697), Pakistan (0,1711), Italy (0,1863), France (0,1878), Brazil (0,1944), Indonesia (0,2251), Iran (0,2269), Egypt (0,2283), Australia (0,2515), Israel (0,2596), Ukraine (0,2598), Germany (0,2847), Spain (0,2882).
Israel's closest and strongest ally is USA and this is due to Jewish Americans. There are 7 million Jewish in USA (2%), as many as in Israel. Israel and USA are the countries with the most Jews, 40% in each. The rest 20% is all over the world, mainly in France (0,44 mil), Canada (0,39 mil), UK (0,29 mil), Argentina (0,17 mil), Russia (0,15 mil), Germany (0,12 mil), Australia (0,12 mil), Brazil (0,09 mil), South Africa (0,05 mil).
Israel will cease to exist in a few weeks, if it did not have assistance, mainly from USA. Enemies and potential enemies in the region are many and much stronger. If Turkiye, Egypt and Iran start a war against it, Israel will have absolutely no chance. Israel could lose the war even against one of them, since they are all stronger. We are referring to full scale war and the conclusion is based on Global Fire Power's rankings.
Of course USA will come to Israel's assistance. USA is the world's first military power but not far from Russia and China that are in second and third place. Russia seems to be neutral but will probably assist Iran which is Israel's biggest enemy. In the 1973 Yom Kippur war, Soviet Union was on Arab side. Leading countries were Egypt and Syria. Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq, Libya, Kuwait, Tunisia, Morocco, Cuba, North Korea were on Arab side.
Even if Israel's relations with some Arab countries have considerably improved, all Muslim countries are potential enemies of Israel, if the situation escalates. Probably Hamas was counting on greater assistance from Muslim countries, which has not happened so far. But it could happen in the future. Let's look at a possible scenario.
The louder opponents of Israel have been Iran and Turkiye. Suppose they start a war against Israel. It is 100% certain that Israel will cease to exist. Israel's chances to win the war are 0%, if nuclear weapons are not involved. We should point out that the only reason Israel did not lose the 1973 Yom Kippur war was because it threatened to use nuclear weapons.
The ranking in total warheads is; Russia 5.580 (5.889), USA 5.044 (5.224), China 500 (410), France 290, UK 225, India 172 (164), Pakistan 170, Israel 90, North Korea 50 (30). In parenthesis there is a second estimation. Israel has nuclear weapons. It is speculated that Iran has as well. Even if Turkiye and Iran do not have nuclear weapons, the could get them from elsewhere.
Learning from the Yom Kippur war, It would be very foolish to start a war against Israel, without having ensured that they have or could get nuclear weapons. So Israel's threat to use nuclear weapons or actual use will not get any results. Without the threat to use or actual use of nuclear weapons, Israel will certainly lose the war against Turkiye and Iran and will cease to exist.
Obviously USA will not let that to happen and will get directly involved. In that case, most likely Russia will assist Iran. Russia has the most nuclear weapons. USA is stronger than Russia militarily but the difference is not big. Also the location of the war is important. The further from its borders a country is fighting a war, the weaker it becomes. Probably Russia is stronger in Eastern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean.
Most likely, USA and Israel will lose the war against Russia, Turkiye and Iran but with a high cost for both sides. They could lose the war even without Turkiye's participation. Israel will cease to exist even with USA's assistance, if Russia is involved. It is expected that some Western European countries like UK and France will also assist Israel. In that case, Russia will get help from China and other countries. This would definitely be World War III.
How likely is that Turkiye and Iran will get directly involved? So far, Turkiye and Iran have not gone to war against Israel. Israeli army was fighting in its own territory against a minority that has a guerrilla army. It is a different story, if Israel starts a war against Lebanon. This would no longer be a civil war in its own territory against a minority but a war against another country. Probably Iran would get involved and possibly Turkiye.
If Turkiye and Iran go to war against Israel, they would expect that USA will come to Israel's assistance. It would be foolish to start anything without having ensured that Russia would also get directly involved. Russia is directly involved in Ukrainian war and could be involved in Middle East as well. As in the war in Ukraine, the best thing is to negotiate. Democrats have very bad relations with Russia and barely speak with Turkiye.
The most suitable person to solve this conflict that could eventually escalate to World War III is Trump. He can talk with Russia and Turkiye. His hard line approach on Israel could be a negotiating tactic. There should be an agreement not only for the Palestinian problem but for other problems as well, like in Ukraine and in Cyprus. And most importantly, AntiNWO's compromise plan should proceed because it gives solutions to almost all problems.