Steps of enlargement

Two step exit with Italy's participation as an option is a great way to get things on the right track in a smooth way. It requires that the first step should happen ASAP. Greco-Thraco-Illyrian countries should exit EU and form a temporary independent Group. Gradually, non EU members of Southern Region A2 can be added. Do all Greco-Thaco-Illyrian countries have to exit at once?

That would be the best way but it is not absolutely necessary. It can also be done in two, three or more steps. For instance, half of the Greco-Thraco-Illyrian countries could exit ASAP and the rest after a while. In that case we would have a three step exit. The third step would be that of PCB (Poland, Czechia, Baltic countries) or Italy. But this may create some conflict regarding which countries should exit first. Also countries have nothing to gain by delaying the exit.

So why is PCB (Poland, Czechia, Baltic countries) exit is delayed in the two step exit? This would be an extra bonus for Western Europe, if they support the formation of a temporary independent Group and provided that Northern Region A2 will have orientation in external relations towards Western Europe. There is also the possibility that PCB will participate in Western European Group.

The only swap that could happen between Western and Eastern European Group is exchanging Italy for PCB aka Gernman Wannabes. Delaying PCB exit gives Italy some time to consider participation in Eastern European Group. Actually, it gives time to all interested parties to consider what is preferable, PCB or Italy in Eastern European Group. Interested parties could influence the opinion of Italy and PCB.

Countries that exit EU will have a transitional period in which matters will remain as they were in EU. Also there will be a smooth transition in establishing relations with Subgroup B. Suppose that half Greco-Thraco-Illyrian countries exit ASAP and the rest after some time. When the second tier exits, the first would have gone through all or a large part of the transition period.

The two tiers would be at different stages of transition and this will make matters more complex and difficult. Nevertheless, it is possible to have three or more step exit but not recommended. So far, we considered only countries that are EU members. But there are also non-EU countries that are designated to participate in Southern Region of Western Subgroup.

These are shown in Category A2b of Table C Appendix 24b. Category A2a had EU members of Southern Region A2. In Category A1a are the EU members of Northern Region A1. These are PCB (Poland, Czechia, Baltic countries) aka German Wannabes, the only ones that could participate in a swap between Western and Eastern Group. Ukraine is the only non EU member of Region A1 in Category A1b.

Ideally, EU members will exit and form a temporary independent Group. They will have a smooth transition from EU to Eastern European Group. At the same time, gradually, non -EU members will be added in their Group. There is another way to form such a Group, with ex - EU and non EU members. It would be a little more messy but still possible. Actually, only non EU members could start a temporary independent Group.

Table B of Appendix 24 shows the countries designated to be in the two Subgroups of Eastern European Group. In Category A1 are EU members and in Category A2 non EU members. Together they make Western Subgroup. In Category B are the countries of Subgroup B. Some countries from Categories A1 and A2 could start a temporary independent Group.

These countries could be a) only from Category A1 b) only from Category A2 c) from both Categories. If they are only from Category A1, they could have a transition period from EU to Eastern European Group, while concurrently they add countries from Category A2. Eventually, all Eastern European countries will be left out of EU and will have only two options; a) be in Eastern European Group b) be in no Group.

EU's enlargement had many steps. The years and the number of member countries were as follows; 1) '58 - 6 2) '73 - 9 3) '81 - 10 4) '86 - 12 5) '95 - 15 6) '04 - 25 7) '07 - 27 8) '13 - 28. Steps 3, 6, 7, 8 were big mistakes because Eastern European countries were added. The process in Eastern European Group's formation can be viewed as stages or steps of enlargement.

There are two ways the Group can be formed; a) two temporary independent Groups that will merge b) CIS enlargement. In the first case, a temporary Group must be formed by some of the countries in Categories A1 and A2 of Table B Appendix 24. Altogether these are twenty one countries, thirteen in EU and eight not in EU. The goal would be to get in some steps most of these countries in Western Subgroup.

Countries that are in EU would have to exit. If they do it early enough, they will avoid a major crisis. If they do not do take care of themselves, they will be left out of EU and have a major crisis. At some time in the future, this Group will merge with Subgroup B and be the relatively autonomous Western Subgroup of Eastern European Group. Members can be added in the Subgroup after the merger. Some of the enlargement steps can be taken before and some after the merger.

Suppose that a temporary independent Group can't be formed. There will be no other alternative than CIS enlargement. Category A of Table E Appendix 24b has CIS countries. Ukraine and Moldova are also included. Category B has non - EU countries and Category C EU countries. Perhaps it would be easier to add non - EU countries in CIS enlargement and that is why they are placed in the second Category B.

CIS enlargement can proceed in steps. Countries from Categories B and C will be added in steps. Those that are EU members will have to exit first. If they don't do it early enough, they will be left out of EU and have a major crisis. Eventually, most countries of Categories B and C will join CIS enlargement because their only other option is to be in no Group. In CIS enlargement, it becomes much more difficult to have two relatively independent Subgroups.

Italy is a special case. There is not danger for Italy to be left out of EU and have a major crisis since it is a Western European country. But if they decide to be in Eastern European Group, they must be included in a step of enlargement. That would be either enlargement of Western Subgroup or CIS. If it is enlargement of Western Subgroup A, it can happen before or after the merger with Eastern Subgroup B.