Completing the Coalitions

In the two previous articles, we expained how the poles should be redifined if Russia decides to be together with China, Iran and other countries, as presented in Table A of Appendix 50. Two of the Coalitions can be complete, A and B. C and D remain incomplete. The two poles are North America and Eastern Europe strengthened with other areas. They will have to gather countries. There are several ways to do that.

However, is should be done in a balanced way in terms of economic strength and military power. Mainly, economic strength and military power of the whole Coalition should be considered. But also there should be enough countries with adequate economic strength and military power. In many previous articles we have presented the largest economies and the strongest military powers.

The thirty largest economies in purchasing power parity (ppp) are 1) China 2) USA 3) India 4) Russia 5) Japan 6) Germany 7) Indonesia 8) Brazil 9) France 10) UK 11) Turkey 12) Italy 13) Mexico 14) South Korea 15) Spain 16) Saudi Arabia 17) Canada 18) Egypt 19) Nigeria 20) Poland 21) Taiwan 22) Australia 23) Vietnam 24) Iran 25) Thailand 26) Bangladesh 27) Pakistan 28) Philippines 29) Argentina 30) Malaysia (IMF 2026).

The top thirty countries according to military power are 1) USA 2) Russia 3) China 4) India 5) South Korea 6) France 7) Japan 8) UK 9) Turkey 10) Italy 11) Brazil 12) Germany 13) Indonesia 14) Pakistan 15) Israel 16) Iran 17) Australia 18) Spain 19) Egypt 20) Ukraine 21) Poland 22) Taiwan 23) Vietnam 24) Thailand 25) Saudi Arabia 26) Sweden 27) Algeria 28) Canada 29) Singapore 30) Greece (Global Firepower 2026).

Two of the Coalitions are ready. Coalition A has Western Europe and India. India is the third largest economy and has the fourth strongest military. There are several Western European countries in both lists. Coalition B has China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan. Coalition C has USA and Canada so far as the pole but more countries/areas will be added to make it complete.

Russia is the Eastern European country with the largest economy and the strongest military. Other than Russia, Eastern Europe does not have many countries in the two lists with the top thirty. Only Poland is in the 20th place of the largest economies. In terms of military power, Ukraine is in 20th place, Poland in 21st and Greece in 30th. No more Eastern European countries are in the two lists.

Suppose that Scandinavia - Finland - Austria (SFA) are also the pole of Coalition D. Only Sweden is in 26th place of military power. No other SFA country is in any of the two lists. So the pole of Coalition D (SFA - Eastern Europe) should gather areas with countries that have economic strength and military power. Japan and South Korea must be in the Coalition, regardless if they are in the pole or not.

This is because Japan has the 5th largest economy and the 7th strongest military. South Korea has the 14th largest economy and the 5th strongest military. Three other countries that should be included in Coalition D are Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia. With Indonesia, the rest of ASEAN should also be included. With Saudi Arabia, most of the countries in Arab Peninsula should be included.

Obviously, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq can't be with USA. Also the rest of Arab countries of North Africa should be included in D. This is presented in Table B of Appendix 52B . So far, we have an incomplete Coalition with 19,7%. The target is 24,2% because Coalitions C and D will have together 48,4%. This is because Coalition A will have 25,5% and Coalition B 26,1%. Half of 48,4% is 24,2%.

We should note that if SFA (Scandinavia - Finland - Austria) are with Western Europe, the total of C and D will decrease to less than 48% and the average will be less than 24%. Therefore, decision makers will not allow SFA to be with Western Europe. It is impossible to have the percentage of Coaliiton D exactly 24,2%. Ideally, C and D should be in the range 24 - 24,4%. However, even that is not easy.

The rest of the American continent should be with North America in C. Two areas have not been placed in a Coalition, Subsahara Africa and Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua). If Coalition D gets the Subsaharan countries that are shown in Table B (Appendix 52B), the percentage will become 25,2%. It is not high because it is close to the target 25%. However, the percentage of Coalition C would be 23,2% because A and B have 25,5% and 26,1%.

Oceania can't be in Coalition D because it would further decrease the percentage of Coalition C. It does not show on the map but Oceania is relatively close to South America which is in Coalition C. But Indonesia and ASEAN are much closer to Oceania. In order to have Oceania in D, North America should get more of Subsahara Africa (or North Africa) in C. This is something they may or may not accept.

If this is not acceptable and Oceania must be with D, the alternative presented in "Less probable arrangements 2" and Appendix 50 should be chosen. British Isles will be in C with North America, SFA (Scandinavia - Finland - Austria) in A with Western Europe and Oceania in D with ASEAN, Japan, S. Korea, Eastern Europe. However that would not be possible if SFA are already the pole of Coalition D.

Therefore, it is better if the placement of Oceania is decided first, in the case North America is unwilling to get more in Subsahara Africa (or North Africa). Another approach would be to leave the placement of British Isles, SFA and Oceania to be decided later. This is not a good approach because these three areas will not just be included in the Coalitions but in the poles. Eventhough it is not a good approach, it is an option.

Suppose that Oceania is placed in Coalition C with the American continent and a large part of Subsahara. The percentage of C (23,2%) is low but they may be willing to accept it. If they do not accept it, they could get more from other Coalitions. It would be better to take around 1% from A and B since they have the highest percentages. But due to the way the arrangment is, they can only take from D in Africa.

We should note that we have been using 2022 data for consistency. Population growth is not the same in all areas of the world. Subsaharan Africa is the area with the highest population growth. Coalition C has the largest part of Subsaharan Africa. Two thirds of Subsahara are in C and only one third in D. North Africa is also in D. With 2026 data, the percentage of C is expected to increase. Additionally, it will keep increasing in the future.